Fig. 1. The actual population fluctuations in the size of the muskox population in the Dovre Mountains (solid lines) and population prediction interval (PPI) of future population sizes with (stippled line) and without (dotted lines) uncertainties in the parameter estimates. The values of alpha are quantiles in the distribution representing predicted population sizes. Accordingly, the interval between α = 0•025 and α = 0•975 represents the 95% PPI.