In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most likely scenario for the coming decades was continuation of the US as the sole superpower accompanied by several great powers. This idea still forms the core of the debates about polarity. Its main theme is whether or not the US will be able to preserve its sole superpower status, or whether rising challengers, mainly China, will soon return the world order to bipolarity. It is typical of the Western part of this debate to be looking for ways to preserve US hegemony/leadership either by maintaining and exploiting a power advantage or by relegitimizing its leading role using institutions to accommodate rising powers.
My second most likely scenario from 2004 was one in which there would be no superpowers, only great powers, and I argued that this would produce a rather uncertain world. I now think that this scenario is becoming more likely, but can be seen in a more positive light. I argue here that it offers an alternative third way of thinking about the coming world order: not whether there will be one superpower or more, but no superpowers, only great powers. We may be heading quite quickly into such a world, and this may be no bad thing. The mainstream polarity debates typically ignore the fact that there is an alternative to having either to balance against the US or bandwagon with it. Others can, and increasingly do, use the diminished power and authority of the US as a reason to ignore or circumscribe it, and to carve their own pathways in regional and global politics.Continued US leadership is neither necessary nor, arguably, desirable to keep the world order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition