Figure 12.10 shows the probabilistic projected reservoir elevations at the end of each year and
demonstrates potential comparative impacts on the lower basin. At the probabilistic 10th, 50th, and
90th percentiles of the scenarios, clear differences can be seen with the baseline and flood-control
alternatives maintaining higher reservoir elevations, and the California and Shortage Protection
alternatives resulting in the largest storage declines. While the policy differences between the alternatives
end in 2016, meaningful differences in Lake Mead’s elevation persist for years until converging
in roughly 2040.