Option expiries 10am NY cut today 2 Oct
• USDJPY 119.45-50 (USD 420m) 120.70 (505m) 121.00 (722m)
• EURUSD 1.1100 (EUR 1bln) 1.1175 (260m) 1.1200 (527m) 1.1250 (500m)
• GBPUSD none
• USDCHF 0.9800 (USD 270m)
• USDCAD none
• AUDUSD none
USDCHF orders 2 Oct
USDCHF currently 0.9785 underpinned but still to get above 0.9800 again. Deja vu time.
Sellers 0.9800 0.9830-35 0.9850 0.9880 0.9900
Buyers 0.9760 0.9730 0.9700 0.9680 0.9640 0.9620 0.9600
EURCHF orders 2 Oct
EURCHF currently 1.0924 finding demand in the dips still (SNB smoothing can't be ruled out) but with supply around 1.0960. Some offers back in at 1.0930
Sellers 1.0930 1.0960-65 1.0985 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050
Buyers 1.0900 1.0880 1.0850 1.0830 1.0800 1.0785 1.0750
USDCAD orders 2 Oct
USDCAD currently 1.3229 in still on the back foot as oil price firms.
Sellers 1.3250 1.3270 1.3285 1.3300 1.3330 1.3370 1.3400 1.3430 1.3450
Buyers 1.3220 1.3200 1.3170 1.3150 1.3100 1.3080 1.3050 1.3030 1.3000
NZDUSD orders 2 Oct
NZDUSD currently 0.6410. Also deja vu time ahead of NFPs
Sellers 0.6430 0.6450 0.6485 0.6500 0.6525 0.6550 0.6600
Buyers 0.6385 0.6360 0.6330 0.6300 0.6270 0.6250 0.6225 0.6200
EURJPY orders 2 Oct
Currently 134.10 near session lows as euro dips on equity rally and USDJPY runs into offers into 120.20
Offers 134.50 134.80 135.00 135.25 135.50 135.80 136.00
Bids: 134.00 133.75 133.50 133.30 133.00 132.80 132.50
EURGBP orders 2 Oct
Currently 0.7373 with focus on equities and UK construction PMI ahead of NFPs. Good size demand at 0.7350 and strong offers into 0.7420
Offers: 0.7385 0.7400 0.7420 0.7435 0.7450
Bids: 0.7360 0.7350 0.7330-35 0.7300 0.7285 0.7250
AUDUSD orders 2 Oct
Currently 0.7042 still seeing good two-way business
Offers: 0.7050 0.7065 0.7080-85 0.7100 0.7120 0.7150 0.7185 0.7200
Bids: 0.7020-25 0.7000 0.6980 0.6965 0.6950 0.6925-30 0.6900
USDJPY orders 2 Oct
Currently 120.04 still treading water
Offers: 120.20 120.30-35 120.50 120.65 120.85 121.00 121.30 121.50
Bids: 119.80 119.65 119.40 119.25 119.10 119.00 118.85 118.65 118.50
EURUSD orders 2 Oct
Currently stuck around 1.1175 also waiting for NFPs but keep an eye on European equity markets opening now
Offers 1.1185 1.1200 1.1220 1.1245 1.1260 1.1280 1.1300 1.1330 1.1350
Bids: 1.1155-60 1.1135 1.1120 -25 1.1100 1.1085 1.1065 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000
GBPUSD orders 2 Oct
Currently 1.5150 treading water ahead of NFPs but may see some action on UK construction PMI at 08.30 GMT
Offers: 1.5165-70 1.5185 1.5200 1.5220 1.5235 1.5250 1.5280 1.5300
Bids: 1.5125-30 1.5100 1.5080-85 1.5060 1.5030 1.5000 1.4985 1.4965 1.4950
แถมด้วยข้อมูลเกี่ยวข้องกับ NFP ทุ่มครึ่งคืนนี้
Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of the September 2015 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, October 2, 2015
• Median NFP estimate 201k (197k Private)
• August 173k
• Highest estimate 256k (Paragon)
• Lowest estimate 175k (HFE)
• Average estimate 212k
• Standard deviation 18k
• Unemployment rate exp 5.1% vs 5.1% prior
• Participation rate exp 62.6% unch
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp 0.2% vs 0.3% prior
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.6 prior
Here's the August jobs story so far
• ADP 200K vs 186k prior (exp 190K)
• ISM manufacturing employment 50.8 vs 51.2 prior
• ISM non-manufacturing employment (to be released Wed)
• Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 270.8 vs 275.3k prior (for Aug NFP survey date)
• Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 24.3 vs 21.7 prior
• Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +138.5K vs +34.2k prior
• Challenger layoffs 58.9K vs 105.7k prior
• July JOLTS 5753k vs 5323k prior
A preview of the Nonfarm payroll data due from the US at 1230GMT, in the '5 things' format
This is a nice, succinct way of looking at the data from the Wall Street Journal. And... for more detail, its ungated
1. August's result was the second-weakest this year ... a blip or the start of an extended slowdown?
2. The prime age workforce is shrinking ... where are they?
3. While jobs are growing, wage growth is slow ... an acceleration in this would indicate a reduction in labor market slack
4. Underemployment .... involuntary part-time workers (those who want more hours and/or full-time jobs) is a Federal Reserve concern
5. Where are the jobs - employment by industry sector will give a more nuanced view of the US economy