Experimental infectious pancreatic necrosis
infections: propagative or point-source epidemic?
G. Smith, J. Bebak
*
, P.E. McAllister
1
Section of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine,
New Bolton Center, 382 West Street Road, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USA
Received 9 November 1999; accepted 31 August 2000
Abstract
Experimentally initiated epidemics of infectious pancreatic necrosis in rainbow-trout fry were
analyzed using a modification of the standard mathematical model for a simple propagative
epidemic. Contrary to expectations, the value of the transmission parameter (
b
) was inversely
related to initial density of susceptible hosts. This anomaly can be explained if we assume that the
experimental epidemics were point-source rather than propagative epidemics. The implications of
this conclusion for modeling experimental and natural epidemics are discussed.
#
2000 Elsevie
Experimental infectious pancreatic necrosisinfections: propagative or point-source epidemic?G. Smith, J. Bebak*, P.E. McAllister1Section of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine,New Bolton Center, 382 West Street Road, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USAReceived 9 November 1999; accepted 31 August 2000AbstractExperimentally initiated epidemics of infectious pancreatic necrosis in rainbow-trout fry wereanalyzed using a modification of the standard mathematical model for a simple propagativeepidemic. Contrary to expectations, the value of the transmission parameter (b) was inverselyrelated to initial density of susceptible hosts. This anomaly can be explained if we assume that theexperimental epidemics were point-source rather than propagative epidemics. The implications ofthis conclusion for modeling experimental and natural epidemics are discussed.#2000 Elsevie
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