Abstract
A prolonged global economic recovery and diminished global trade have
highlighted the need for Thailand to rely on a new growth model—creative
destruction—that focuses on sustained productivity-led growth from within.
Over the past decades, the Thai economy grew from capital and labor
accumulation as well as productivity. However, the gains from labor and capital
accumulation are now diminishing; long-term growth will ultimately have to
come from productivity. This paper empirically examines the micro-foundations
of productivity growth through creative destruction—the process by which new
innovations replace older technologies. Rich firm data show two key results.
First, incentives matter—competition can foster firm innovation, resource
reallocation and creative destruction, thereafter. Second, firm dynamics also
play a role: the reallocation of capital to high productivity firms away from low
productivity boosts aggregate productivity growth. In addition, new firms
undergo a selection process whereby innovative firms survive, grow in size and
become industry leaders. However, the evidence for creative destruction is not
prevalent throughout all sectors and suggests that the economy is bifurcated: a
dynamic Thailand co-exists alongside a stagnant Thailand. The challenge for
policymakers is therefore how to fully harness the forces of creative destruction
through broad and consistent reforms in areas such as education, competition,
labor, finance and the institutional environment.
1 Introduction
The Thai economy is at a critical juncture. Growth registered 3 percent over 2007-2011, hardly stellar for an economy considered a development success. Low trend growth as well as external challenges—prolonged global economic recovery, diminished global trade—have highlighted the need for Thailand to rely on a new growth model—creative destruction—that focuses on sustained productivity-led growth from within. Over the past decades, the Thai economy grew from capital and labor accumulation as well as productivity. This growth model worked well for Thailand or indeed any nascent emerging market. However, the gains from labor and capital accumulation are now diminishing; long-term growth will ultimately have to come from productivity.
However, productivity growth following the Asian crisis has not been a major contributor to growth. It is imperative we understand the underlying process driving productivity growth in Thailand. This paper empirically examines the micro-foundations of productivity growth through creative destruction—the process by which new innovations replace older technologies. Rich firm data show two key evidences. First, incentives matter— competition can foster firm innovation, resource reallocation and creative destruction, thereafter. Second, firm dynamics also play a role: the reallocation of capital to high productivity firms away from low productivity boosts aggregate productivity growth. In addition, new firms undergo a selection process whereby innovative firms survive, grow in size and become industry leaders. However, the evidence for creative destruction is not prevalent throughout all sectors and suggests that the economy is bifurcated: a dynamic Thailand co-exists alongside a stagnant Thailand. The challenge for policymakers is therefore how to fully harness the forces of creative destruction through broad and consistent reforms in areas such as education, competition, labor, finance and the institutional environment.
This paper first briefly discusses Thailand’s past growth experience and then assesses the state of productivity growth through creative destruction in the Thai economy using firm data. The paper concludes with policy implications.