A three year average was used to
smooth differences due to lags between exports and imports. For 1991–2006, the estimated
manufactured cigarette consumption from survey data was considerably lower than sales tax paid,
so method 1 did not provide evidence of cigarette tax avoidance. Using method 2 the trade
difference between reported imports and exports, indicates 10% of cigarettes consumed in
Thailand (242 million packs per year) between 2004 and 2006 were illicit. The loss of revenue
amounted to 4,508 million Baht (2002 prices) in the same year, that was 14% of the total cigarette
tax revenue. Cigarette excise tax rates had a negative relationship with consumption trends but no
relation with the level of illicit trade. There is a need for improved policies against smuggling to
combat the rise in illicit tobacco consumption. Regional coordination and implementation of
protocols on illicit trade would help reduce incentives for illegal tax avoidance.