Table IV shows the potential VaR from the spread positions
and different confidence intervals. Suppose we take the 99%
confidence interval for use with our Method 1 VaR calculation
at the end of August 2006. A notional position in the spread
trade of $10.228 billion would give us a VaR calculation of
$254.95 million.30 The actual leveraged position of Amaranth
had an estimated VaR of $1.33 billion. This is a sizeable
amount of VaR, however it is not the actual amount they lost
in September. The actual amount they lost from August 31,
2006 to September 21, 2006 had the positions been held
constant was around $3.295 billion which is listed under the
column “Actual” in the table.