HAILAND
A decade on from the financial crisis of 1997, Thailand finds itself in the midst of another crisis, this time a political one. Although the economy has been suffering from a downturn in business confidence in the wake of the September 2006 military coup, Thailand's economic fundamentals are nevertheless generally strong. Indeed, rather than battling the markets to prop up the baht, the Bank of Thailand (BOT, the central bank) has been under pressure to weaken it. In order to do so, in late 2006 the BOT imposed controls on the inflow of capital. The baht now stands at a nine-year high of around Bt34.5:US$1 on the local market, and on the offshore market it has risen to Bt32.3US$1.
The country's external accounts are far healthier: the current account has been in surplus every year since 1997 except 2005; foreign-exchange reserves have soared to US$71bn, up from the 1997 low of US$26bn reached when the BOT gave up its costly efforts to keep the baht fixed to the dollar; and external debt levels have dropped sharply, with most of the private sector's short-term debt taking the form of trade credits rather than loans, a reversal from the pre-1997 situation.
The banking sector has also recovered well, with NPLs dropping to around 4-5% of total outstanding loans--a decade ago the ratio was close to 50%. A process of consolidation in the banking sector has also been under way since 2004, and regulatory standards and bank lending practices have improved markedly.
HAILANDA decade on from the financial crisis of 1997, Thailand finds itself in the midst of another crisis, this time a political one. Although the economy has been suffering from a downturn in business confidence in the wake of the September 2006 military coup, Thailand's economic fundamentals are nevertheless generally strong. Indeed, rather than battling the markets to prop up the baht, the Bank of Thailand (BOT, the central bank) has been under pressure to weaken it. In order to do so, in late 2006 the BOT imposed controls on the inflow of capital. The baht now stands at a nine-year high of around Bt34.5:US$1 on the local market, and on the offshore market it has risen to Bt32.3US$1.The country's external accounts are far healthier: the current account has been in surplus every year since 1997 except 2005; foreign-exchange reserves have soared to US$71bn, up from the 1997 low of US$26bn reached when the BOT gave up its costly efforts to keep the baht fixed to the dollar; and external debt levels have dropped sharply, with most of the private sector's short-term debt taking the form of trade credits rather than loans, a reversal from the pre-1997 situation.The banking sector has also recovered well, with NPLs dropping to around 4-5% of total outstanding loans--a decade ago the ratio was close to 50%. A process of consolidation in the banking sector has also been under way since 2004, and regulatory standards and bank lending practices have improved markedly.
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