Results. A significant positive association was found between BMI and risk of LBP among persons without LBP at baseline. The odds ratio for BMI 30 or more versus BMI less than 25 was 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08–1.67) for men and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.03–1.46) for women, in analyses adjusted for age, education, work status, physical activity at work and in leisure time, smoking, blood pressure, and serum lipid levels. A significant positive association was also established between BMI and recurrence of LBP among women. LBP status at baseline had negligible influence on subsequent change in BMI.
Conclusion. High values of BMI may predispose to chronic LBP 11 years later, both in individuals with and without LBP. The association between BMI and LBP is not explained by an effect of LBP on later change in BMI