Generally speaking, our theoretical analysis indicates that aggregate effects of climate change may be moderate, but inside the global envelope there will be dramatic compositional adjustments and significant winners and losers. This view already has many adherents, but its policy implications need wider acceptance. The complexity of the underlying processes means that policymakers relying on rules of thumb alone are unlikely to achieve anything approaching optimality. For that reason, we believe the research community has an important responsibility to improve visibility for them by advancing empirical work in this area.