In AlphaBeta's analysis only Chile, a major copper producer, and Zambia suffer more than Australia as China shifts to a more services and consumption-oriented economy.
With China's investment slowdown expected to run for at least five-10 years, AlphaBeta said that Australia's economy
is likely to face a headwind to growth of around 1 percentage point per annum, from this source alone.
Australia recently posted economic growth of just 2 per cent over the year to June, the worst result since the September quarter of 2013, and can ill afford further headwinds.
The AlphaBeta/IMF scenario also rests on China being able to maintain 6-6.5 per cent economic growth for the rest of the decade.
While China's most recent official figures have the country hitting its current 7 per cent growth target, AlphaBeta noted widespread doubts about this figure's reliability.
On one alternative measure of growth, apparently used in the past by current Chinese premier Li Keqiang, China's economy is not growing and may even have shrunk a little earlier this year.
In AlphaBeta's analysis only Chile, a major copper producer, and Zambia suffer more than Australia as China shifts to a more services and consumption-oriented economy.With China's investment slowdown expected to run for at least five-10 years, AlphaBeta said that Australia's economy is likely to face a headwind to growth of around 1 percentage point per annum, from this source alone.Australia recently posted economic growth of just 2 per cent over the year to June, the worst result since the September quarter of 2013, and can ill afford further headwinds.The AlphaBeta/IMF scenario also rests on China being able to maintain 6-6.5 per cent economic growth for the rest of the decade.While China's most recent official figures have the country hitting its current 7 per cent growth target, AlphaBeta noted widespread doubts about this figure's reliability.On one alternative measure of growth, apparently used in the past by current Chinese premier Li Keqiang, China's economy is not growing and may even have shrunk a little earlier this year.
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