The new Basic Law stipulates that the government should take measures to promote efficient and stable farm
enterprises and ensure that the agricultural structure is dominated by such farms. To carry this out, the government
produced the Forecast of Agricultural Structure and Farm Management together with the basic plan in 2000 and 2005,
which sets the target year as 2015.
Based on recent trends, it is forecasted that the number of farm households will decline from 2.93 million to 2.1-
2.5 million by 2015. The policy efforts already being implemented are predicted to increase the number of efficient and
stable family farm households from 120-150 in 2005 to 330-370 thousand in 2015 and corporate farms from 6 000 to
10 000. Moreover, the formation of between 20 000 and 40 000 community-based farm co-operatives, promoted by the
new direct payments for core farmers, is expected by 2015. As a result, in the case of paddy farming, 70-80% of paddy
field area is expected to be cultivated by one of these types of core farmers by 2015.
The number of principal farmers who mainly engage in family farming is expected to decline from 2 200 000 to
1 460 000 by 2015. Aging of the farm labour force is forecasted to increase the proportion of worker older than 65 from
54% to 62%. There were approximately 12 000 new entrants to farming between 1999 and 2003 and the same rate of
entry is expected to continue.