“When most of your production goes into ethanol and ethanol is not enabling you to service your borrowing as well as not paying you a return as a shareholder, that means you need a really high sugar price to be able to pay your borrowing, pay your taxes and make some money,” Cohen said. “The sugar price down here doesn’t do that.”
Subsidized gasoline helped cut demand for ethanol to 19.5 million cubic meters (5.146 billion gallons) last year from 23.2 million cubic meters in 2010, prompting mills to produce more sugar instead of the biofuel, according to data from Bloomberg Industries. That added to a glut of sugar as producers from Thailand to Australia boosted output after futures traded in New York climbed to a 30-year high of 36.08 cents a pound in February 2011. Since then, sugar prices are down 55 percent, including 17 percent this year to 16.15 cents a pound today on ICE Futures U.S.
Itau estimates that 44 of the 63 millers that are clients of the bank are losing money as measured by free cash flow, or what is left after capital spending, operating expenses and interest, Alexandre Figliolino, a director of agribusiness, said in a Dec. 5 interview.