While in this paper we have presented only eight structured scenarios, it is obviously
possible to generate many random scenarios through its use in real-time in public settings.
It has been integrated with GB-QUEST model and has been played in various interactive
settings such as workshops to collect information on what kinds of futures do people prefer
and what kinds of trade-offs are they prepared to make to attain them. These data will
provide valuable information to policy and decision-makers that would lead to achieving
the goals of sustainable development.
AgFutures is a prototype model and there is much scope for improvement in it.
Different ‘values’ of agriculture, such as local jobs, need to be addressed and included as
‘outcomes’ in the model. The analytical capability of the model can benefit from recent
approaches in land-use modeling, such as agent-based approaches [7], which capture
human decision-making complexities in a better way. An important future research area
will be to address other ‘values’ of agriculture such as local jobs and the biophysical
feedbacks to the land-use changes, which can affect the sustainability significantly. For
example, agricultural intensification may result in land degradation that in turn would
affect the yields of the crop. This would affect agricultural output and undermine its
sustainability. Other relevant connections for future research include climate change
impacts on crop yields and nutrient loading implications on local water quality. Such
models would help address complex two-sided interactions between the driving forces
and outcomes of agriculture and hopefully serve as more robust and reliable tools for
sustainability.