A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach,
in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make
educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to
focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are
Bat risk on adverse effects^ and robustness of results of risk-based analyses over
multiple cohorts were assessed by an empirical analysis of Dutch primary schools.
Adverse effects were defined as below average final achievement and/or below average
value added. School composition, previous underperformance, insufficient judgments
on having a systematic evaluation approach, evaluation of support, and monitoring
student performance appeared as factors related to subsequent underperformance of
schools. Although a rich set of possible risk factors was available, further investigation
of a large number of schools is required in order to find nearly all underperforming
schools. However, a group of about 40 % of the schools showed very small risk on
underperformance, which represents the efficiency gain when risk-based school accountability
would be applied. Furthermore, whether schools are (in)accurately classified
in the risk analysis as Bat-risk^ schools depends heavily on the chosen caesura.