They do not incorporate human choice and decision-making and uncertainty as
fundamental to understanding the future [1].
In order that land-use models can be used as decision support tools for sustainability, it
is necessary that they not only address human decision-making complexities in land-use
systems but also allow users and decision-makers to explore alternative futures. The
capability to ‘explore’ futures is necessary because there is no single ‘right’ path (or set of
choices) for achieving sustainability. Different paths reflect different needs and wants that
may be conflicting and competing. Any successful quest for sustainability therefore has to
be a collective, uncertain and adaptive endeavour by society [8]. In the context of
agriculture, various scenarios of agricultural development, based on different choices,
need to be explored and examined for their effects and trade-offs with respect to
sustainability objectives as defined by different stakeholder groups.
In this study, we use land-use modeling as a tool to aid decision-making for sustainable
development. We develop an integrated model called ‘AgFutures’ that is capable of
generating a wide range of possible agricultural futures based on different choices and
assessing the associated land-use changes and their impacts under various scenarios, in
order to explore alternative futures of agricultural sustainability.