A number of years ago, one of the authors was called on to improve the forecast at a company. During the visit, the author asked the top-level managers for the following year's forecast. The president stated there would be a 15 percent increase in sales for the next year. The vice-president of marketing stated his staff rolled-up the sales quotas and determined the forecast. The vice-president of manufacturing operations stated his managers used an exponential smoothing method using last year's production data to create a forecast, and the controller stated that the operations research group