SAVING AND REINVESTMENT
The usual benefit–cost analysis does not consider the effect of an investment’s income
streams on subsequent saving and output. Let us compare the irrigation project discussed
earlier to a rural luxury housing project. Assume both projects have the same
annual net income streams over a 20-year investment life. Let us focus only on the
$200 annual net return ($99.43 discounted to the present) in the fifth year. Suppose
that the commercial farmers whose incomes increased by $200 from the irrigation
project invest $100 in farm machinery and buildings, which in turn increases net
farm earnings for the next 20 years. Assume, though, that all of the income from the
luxury housing project is spent on consumer goods. Should the additional income
(discounted back to the present) attributed to the commercial farmers’ investment
not also be included in the net income streams of the initial irrigation project? By
contrast, that none of the net earnings from luxury housing is reinvested would make
that project less desirable.
Although it is not usually done, benefit–cost analysis can consider the effect of
a project’s net returns on subsequent saving and output (Galenson and Leibenstein
1955:343–370; Eckstein 1957:56–85). In some instances, the savings effect will conflict
with the distributional effect, as higher income recipients usually save and reinvest
more. Furthermore, as the income streams are even further in the future, their
discounted value may be small, especially with high interest rates. Although accurate
prediction is not possible, we can consider how much people are likely to save from
income resulting from a particular investment project.
FACTOR PRICE DISTORTIONS
Chapter 9 indicated that wages in LDCs are frequently higher, and interest rates and
foreign exchange costs lower, than market-clearing rates. Because of these distortions,
the private investor may use more capital goods and foreign inputs and less labor
than is socially profitable.