The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for the month of April is due for release at 12:30 GMT on Friday. The report is expected to show the economy is expected to have added 227K jobs, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.5% to 5.4%.
Be prepared for a weak print
The labor indicators reported over the month indicate the odds are in favor of a weaker-than-expected payrolls figure. The ADP non-farm employment change figure for the same month showed private sector added 169K jobs, short of the estimated 199K gain. The previous month’s figure was also revised downwards. Furthermore, the jobs component the jobs component of the April ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 50 to 48.3 – its lowest level since September 2009. The Challenger job cuts data released today revealed that in April, 61,582 layoffs were announced, and 20,675 -or 34% - were directly linked to the oil crash.
Consequently, there is a high possibility of a weaker-than-expected figure. However, the probability of a big miss on expectations is also low owing to a sustained fall in the weekly jobless claims data. The data released today showed the 4-week moving average of the initial claims falling to 15-year low.