A statistical model can be developed as a binomial logit model of two choices: convert
location i into land use type k or not. The preference Rki is assumed to be the underlying
response of this choice. However, the preference Rki cannot be observed or measured
directly and has therefore to be calculated has a probability. The function that relates
these probabilities with the biophysical and socio-economic location characteristics is
defined in a logit model following:
where Pi
is the probability of a grid cell for the occurrence of the considered land use
type on location i and the X's are the location factors. The coefficients (β) are estimated
through logistic regression using the actual land use pattern as dependent variable. This
method is similar to econometric analysis of land use change, which is very common in
deforestation studies. In econometric studies the assumed behaviour is profit
maximization, which limits the location characteristics to (agricultural) economic factors.
In the study areas is assumed that locations are devoted to the land use type with the
highest 'suitability'. 'Suitability' includes the monetary profit, but can also include cultural
and other factors that lead to deviations from (economic) rational behaviour in land
allocation. This assumption makes it possible to include a wide variety of location
characteristics or their proxies to estimate the logit function that defines the relative
probabilities for the different land use types.