While the initial results of the export led recovery seem promising, there are four
key risk factors that exist that could change the fate of the Spanish recovery. First and
foremost, there is no assurance that the Rajoy administration and the Popular Party will
be reelected in 2015. Although 29% of people plan to vote for the Popular Party
compared to 23% for the socialist workers’ party (PSOE), two different parties, the
United Left (IU) and Union Progress and Democracy (UPyD) have grown in popularity,
each with an expected 13% of the vote. Both upcoming parties lean left on the political
spectrum, and could cause difficulties in passing further reforms in Spanish, and, at
worst, could reverse some of the reforms Spain has already made. Additionally, the
approval rating of Rajoy is only 22%, above that of the PSOE leader (16%), but below
that of the IU (23%) and the UPyD (32%) leaders