The Australian Research Council (www.arc.gov.au) defines “oriented
strategic basic research” (herein abbreviated to “strategic research”) as
“research carried out with the expectation that it will produce a broad
base of knowledge likely to form the background to the solution of
recognised or expected current or future problems or possibilities”. The
key term, “innovative applications”, is defined as “the use to which
something, new or improved, may be put, for example, scientific
knowledge, especially in industry, and equipment for the purpose”.
These were chosen as elements of the title to indicate that a combination
of science and technology is essential for effective application of
predictive microbiology (McMeekin et al., 2005).
The key term, “expectations”, is defined as “the act of looking
forward, something hoped for” or (as in Charles Dickens' novel Great
Expectations “prospects for inheritance”) and, as such, represents the
practical outcomes of predictive microbiology research. This is very
relevant to current consumer expectations of food, as clearly stated by
Carol Brookins at the Global Food and Agriculture Summit in 1999:
“Consumers are demanding miracle foods that are totally natural, have
zero calories, zero fats and cholesterol, delicious taste, total nutrition,
low price, environmentally friendly production, ‘green’ packaging ….
and that guarantee perfect bodies, romance and immortality.” This is
even more relevant in 2008.
A related term, “expected value”, is “the predicted value of a
variable calculated as all probable values multiplied by the probability
of its occurrence”. Clearly, the concurrence of expected and measured
values provides an estimate of the value of a predictive model or “a
measure of its worth, desirability and utility”. Quantifying the value of
predictive microbiology research has rarely, if ever, been attempted
before, in other than a rudimentary manner, but herein we will
describe the outcomes of a value analysis—“a systematic and critical
analysis of a process or every feature of a product”—carried out by the
Centre for International Economics, Canberra, Australia, for Meat and
Livestock Australia