In this paper, we use earnings forecasts from a cross-sectional model instead of analysts’ forecasts to proxy for
cash flow expectations and estimate the implied cost of capital (ICC) for more than 170,000 firm-year observations over
1968–2008. Our cross-sectional earnings model captures significant variation in future earnings performance across firms
using ex ante publicly available information. More importantly, the model produces earnings forecasts that are superior to
consensus analyst forecasts in terms of coverage, forecast bias, and earnings response coefficient. We show that the ICC
estimated using the model-based earnings forecasts is a more reliable proxy for expected returns than the ICC based on
analysts’ forecasts.