The Thai stock market is expected to continue to be volatile this week due to concern over Britain’s referendum on Thursday on whether to remain a member of the European Union, while the impact on the Thai economy of a vote to leave the EU is expected to be small, experts said yesterday.
Kriengkrai Tumnutad, head of research at AEC Securities, said: "As the Thai stock market is waiting for Britain's referendum, the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index is forecast to move with volatility in a range of 1,400-1,440 points."
Ronnakrit Sarinwong, executive vice president at Country Group Securities, voiced similar sentiment, and said he believed the SET resistance level of 1,370 points was currently strong.
Most investors are keeping an eye on a "Brexit" (British exit) vote pressuring the investment climate in stock markets worldwide and triggering foreign-exchange volatility, he said.
Kriengkrai said that if the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, European stock markets would see much more negative impacts, while the SET Index could fall below 1,400 points.
However, there would be quick rebounds from any reduction of investment in Europe's equity and bond markets, he predicted.
If the UK electorate voted to remain an EU member, concerns on the capital markets would ease and profit-taking would be seen in bond markets in Germany and Japan, where returns were less than zero, while the euro, sterling, oil prices and emerging-market stock prices would rebound, he said.
Apichai Raomanachai, deputy managing director for research at Apple Wealth Securities, said that in the event of a majority Brexit vote, he expected the SET Index to fluctuate in the short term, with the resistance level at 1,380 points.
However, if the UK voted to stay in the bloc, the SET Index could touch 1,460-1,480 points, likely driven by capital inflows, he said.
Chaiyot Jiwangkul, research director at Globlex Securities, said he expected the SET Index to increase and test 1,440-1,450 points if the referendum outcome was that Britain should remain in the EU.
However, the gauge could fall to 1,400 points if the vote were in favour of leaving, he suggested.
That said, there was unlikely to be much impact on the Thai economy as exports to the UK accounted for just 1.8 per cent of overall shipments and there were no bilateral trade agreements between the countries, Chaiyot added.
The research director expected investor concerns to ease as the latest opinion surveys on the referendum showed the UK was likely to continue its EU membership.
This means investors will reduce their safe-haven gold holdings, he said.
He said that whatever the outcome, the referendum would affect gold prices, estimating a support level of US$1,250-$1,255 (Bt43,965-Bt44,142) an ounce, and a resistance level of $1,310-$1,315.
Globlex Securities urges the accumulation of stocks with high dividend yield records.
AEC Securities, meanwhile, is focused on four sectors that could outperform the stock market: residential, beverages, hire purchase and alternative energy.
The Thai stock market is expected to continue to be volatile this week due to concern over Britain’s referendum on Thursday on whether to remain a member of the European Union, while the impact on the Thai economy of a vote to leave the EU is expected to be small, experts said yesterday.Kriengkrai Tumnutad, head of research at AEC Securities, said: "As the Thai stock market is waiting for Britain's referendum, the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index is forecast to move with volatility in a range of 1,400-1,440 points."Ronnakrit Sarinwong, executive vice president at Country Group Securities, voiced similar sentiment, and said he believed the SET resistance level of 1,370 points was currently strong.Most investors are keeping an eye on a "Brexit" (British exit) vote pressuring the investment climate in stock markets worldwide and triggering foreign-exchange volatility, he said.Kriengkrai said that if the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, European stock markets would see much more negative impacts, while the SET Index could fall below 1,400 points.However, there would be quick rebounds from any reduction of investment in Europe's equity and bond markets, he predicted. If the UK electorate voted to remain an EU member, concerns on the capital markets would ease and profit-taking would be seen in bond markets in Germany and Japan, where returns were less than zero, while the euro, sterling, oil prices and emerging-market stock prices would rebound, he said.Apichai Raomanachai, deputy managing director for research at Apple Wealth Securities, said that in the event of a majority Brexit vote, he expected the SET Index to fluctuate in the short term, with the resistance level at 1,380 points.However, if the UK voted to stay in the bloc, the SET Index could touch 1,460-1,480 points, likely driven by capital inflows, he said.Chaiyot Jiwangkul, research director at Globlex Securities, said he expected the SET Index to increase and test 1,440-1,450 points if the referendum outcome was that Britain should remain in the EU.However, the gauge could fall to 1,400 points if the vote were in favour of leaving, he suggested.That said, there was unlikely to be much impact on the Thai economy as exports to the UK accounted for just 1.8 per cent of overall shipments and there were no bilateral trade agreements between the countries, Chaiyot added.The research director expected investor concerns to ease as the latest opinion surveys on the referendum showed the UK was likely to continue its EU membership.This means investors will reduce their safe-haven gold holdings, he said.He said that whatever the outcome, the referendum would affect gold prices, estimating a support level of US$1,250-$1,255 (Bt43,965-Bt44,142) an ounce, and a resistance level of $1,310-$1,315.Globlex Securities urges the accumulation of stocks with high dividend yield records.AEC Securities, meanwhile, is focused on four sectors that could outperform the stock market: residential, beverages, hire purchase and alternative energy.
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