This article systematically compares maritime territorial disputes
in the East and South China Seas. It draws on the bargaining
model of war and hegemonic stability theory to track the record of conflicts
and shifts in the relative power balances of the claimants, leading to
the conclusion that certainty and stability have improved in the South
China Sea, with the converse happening in the East China Sea. To enrich
the models, this article also considers social factors (constructivism) and
arrives at the same conclusion. This calls for a differentiated methodological
approach if we are to devise strategies to mediate and resolve
these disputes.