Employment
The latest available data confirm a modest labour market recovery in 2014, driven by improvements in developed economies, which is expected to continue in 2015. Globally, employment is estimated to have grown by 1.4 per cent in 2014, a similar expansion to that in 2013. While this is a modest improvement compared to average growth between 2007 and 2012, it remains persistently below the pre-crisis pace, when employment growth averaged 1.7 per cent annually. Against the backdrop of modest GDP growth, employment creation remains too weak to recover the jobs lost during the crisis and to absorb new market entrants. Unemployment is thus expected to remain elevated in many developed countries, while part-time jobs and lower labour force participation will remain major challenges. In the euro area, average unemployment is projected to decline only slowly from 11.6 per cent in 2014 to 11.1 per cent in 2015 and 10.5 per cent in 2016. In the United States, the recent positive trend is expected to continue, with unemployment forecast to average 5.1 per cent in 2016, down from 5.5 per cent in March 2015. At the same time, labour market conditions in many developing countries and economies in transition have somewhat worsened. With GDP growth slowing, employment growth is coming down, while gender gaps are often widening. Unemployment rates are estimated to have increased in most developing regions, with the exception of South Asia. During the forecast period, this adverse trend is expected to persist, given that growth will likely remain subdued in many countries.