This paper constitutes a link between corporate investment theory and arbitrage choice theory: a suitable portfolio replicating the project's cash flow is used for deriving a project's Aggregate
Return on Investment (AROI). The AROI can be used for uncertain as well certain cash-flow
streams. Mathematically, it is easy to compute: it is the ratio of total cash flow to total invested capital, which is equal to the market value of the replicating portfolio. AROI is NPV-consistent, in that it correctly captures wealth increase via comparison with the risk-adjusted cost of capital. Contrary to IRR and MIRR, it is unique. The AROI does not discount nor compound cash flows (nor capital values): the time value of money is taken into account in an indirect way by incorporating it in the excess return, i.e., the return
over and above the benchmark's return. Consistently with NPV and unlike the MIRR, AROI does not make any assumption on
reinvestment of interim cash flows, so abiding by the basic
principles of corporate financial theory and providing a genuine rate of return for the project under scrutiny. The AROI correctly ranks projects under uncertainty: its ranking is consistent with the NPV ranking. In particular, for choosing
between two unequal-risk competing projects j and k, an incremental technique can be employed: j is preferred to k if and only ifthe incremental AROI exceeds the incremental (risk-adjusted) cost
of capital. Both the incremental AROI and the incremental cost of capital are obtained as weighted means of the projects’ AROIs and
COCs, respectively. In general, for a bundle of competing projects, apairwise incremental analysis is employed, leading to a ranking
which is always equal to the ranking of the NPV approach.
This paper constitutes a link between corporate investment theory and arbitrage choice theory: a suitable portfolio replicating the project's cash flow is used for deriving a project's AggregateReturn on Investment (AROI). The AROI can be used for uncertain as well certain cash-flowstreams. Mathematically, it is easy to compute: it is the ratio of total cash flow to total invested capital, which is equal to the market value of the replicating portfolio. AROI is NPV-consistent, in that it correctly captures wealth increase via comparison with the risk-adjusted cost of capital. Contrary to IRR and MIRR, it is unique. The AROI does not discount nor compound cash flows (nor capital values): the time value of money is taken into account in an indirect way by incorporating it in the excess return, i.e., the returnover and above the benchmark's return. Consistently with NPV and unlike the MIRR, AROI does not make any assumption onreinvestment of interim cash flows, so abiding by the basicprinciples of corporate financial theory and providing a genuine rate of return for the project under scrutiny. The AROI correctly ranks projects under uncertainty: its ranking is consistent with the NPV ranking. In particular, for choosingbetween two unequal-risk competing projects j and k, an incremental technique can be employed: j is preferred to k if and only ifthe incremental AROI exceeds the incremental (risk-adjusted) costof capital. Both the incremental AROI and the incremental cost of capital are obtained as weighted means of the projects’ AROIs andCOCs, respectively. In general, for a bundle of competing projects, apairwise incremental analysis is employed, leading to a rankingwhich is always equal to the ranking of the NPV approach.
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