Thailand has been caught in the growing rivalry and competition between two powers—the
United States and China. The two powerful nations have competed fiercely in order to
strengthen their positions in Thailand. This competition has become increasingly intense
following the Thai political crisis, which began in 2006 when the military staged a coup
overthrowing the elected government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The fragile
political situation in Thailand has provided an opportunity for both Washington and Beijing
to initiate their approaches in order to achieve their goals of maintaining their influence in
Thailand. The United States has chosen to adopt an interventionist approach. In contrast,
China has endorsed pragmatism while consolidating its ties with Thailand. This paper argues
that the two different approaches have had different impacts on the Thai political
landscape. The interference on the part of the United States has to a great degree pushed
Thailand further into China’s orbit. Meanwhile, ASEAN has been struggling to make any impact
on the Thai political crisis due to the grouping’s vulnerable position vis-à-vis its promotion
of democracy.
Key words
Thailand, China, The United States, Military Coup, Great Power Rivalry
Copyright
Please do not quote or cite without permission of the author. Comments are very welcome.
Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the author
in the first instance.
A shorter version of this article was published under the title “Competing Diplomacies: Thailand Amidst ∗
Sino-American Rivalry” in Southeast Asian Affairs 2011 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies),
2011, pp. 306-19. Reproduction with kind permission from ISEAS. The author would like to thank the
Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS) for granting me a one-month fellowship to work on this
topic in June and July 2015.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun — Thailand in Sino-U.S. Rivalry
Introduction
The political crisis in Thailand began in the final years of the Thaksin Shinawatra administration
(2001-2006), which finally led to a military coup in September 2006. But this was not
the last coup Thailand was to experience. In May 2014, the military staged another coup
overthrowing the elected government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra (2011-2014).
In the preceding months, anti-government protesters took control of business districts in
Bangkok while putting pressure on Yingluck, who was attempting to pass an Amnesty Bill
that could free her brother from the corruption charges he was facing. The protests paved
the way for the military to once again intervene in politics, which implied that the army’s
political interests aligned with those of the protesters. Thailand is currently under the custody
of the military regime of Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha, former army
chief and leader of the coup-makers. The enduring political crisis has effectively shaped the
contours of the country’s foreign policy, especially in its relations with the great powers.
The crisis has also provided a vital platform for these powers—in this case, the United
States and China—to compete with each other in order to influence the behavior and policy
of Thailand at a time when the country has been experiencing political turbulence. It is,
however, imperative to explain in a wider context the role of Washington and Beijing in
Thailand’s protracted crisis and their competition for power and supremacy in Southeast
Asia. Thailand continues to serve as a “strategic depot” from which the two great powers
seek to consolidate their spheres of influence in this part of the world. From this perspective,
it can be argued that the Thai political situation has further intensified the level of
competition between the United States and China, which has in turn readjusted the overall
balance of power in Southeast Asia. This paper examines the different approaches of the
United States and China in dealing with the Thai crisis. It asks which approach is more effective
in the attempt to win influence in Thailand. It investigates the way in which the
competition between the two great powers has come to dominate Thailand’s foreign affairs.
In the final section, the paper briefly discusses the standing of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Thailand’s polarized politics and seeks to elucidate whether Thailand
has been able to exploit its position in ASEAN to dilute the overwhelming power of the
United States and China over its domestic and foreign affairs.
The Eagle versus the Dragon
Ian Bremmer has rightly observed that the United States and China are growing dangerously
hostile towards one another. He posed the question whether this could be worse than the
Cold War (Bremmer 2010). The fact that the “list of irritants” in Sino-U.S. relations has grown
in recent years seems to validate Bremmer’s point. For example, back in 2010, burgeoning
bilateral tensions almost led