This paper studies the relation between aggregate stock returns and contemporaneous
and future cross-sectional earnings dispersion. We hypothesize that increases in
expected earnings dispersion signal increases in uncertainty and increases in unemployment,
thereby causing expected returns to rise, which in turn causes prices to
decline. We find a positive relation between aggregate stock returns and contemporaneous
earnings dispersion because higher earnings dispersion is associated with higher
expected returns. Consequently, we also find a negative relation between aggregate
stock returns and future (one-year ahead) earnings dispersion, as investors anticipate
higher future earnings dispersion and higher expected returns.