covered-sovereign
Spreads of covered bonds to sovereign debt have been driven to a big extent by the ECB’s QE programmes.
On the downside the disproportionately higher share the CBPP 3 has already acquired in covered bonds has
compressed spreads to sovereign debt. On the upside this element of distortion has however also kept spreads
very stable during this spring’s rates volatility. For many investors this spread stability argument has replaced
the recovery argument that was very relevant when cash prices were still in the low to mid seventies for peripheral sectors. Covered bonds especially from the periphery can and will therefore continue to trade through
their respective sovereign debt. Since every argument in favour of a certain asset has its price, the extent of
covered bonds trading through has its limits. Looking at anecdotal evidence trading from private sector investors slows down substantially at spreads to Bunds of Pfandbriefe around 15bp and negative spread levels in
semi core sectors. In peripheral markets, 50bp inside in 5Y for top names has been a relevant number.
Whenever we have traded inside these fiures, covered bond investors have waited for sovereign debt to close
the gap rather than pushed covered bond spreads wider. Looking forward towards the QE exit, we will however
have to move back in line with levels at which private sector investors feel comfortable buying covered bonds
without the extreme QE effect. And should sovereign bonds not reduce the covered-govie spread, we will see
some covered bond spread widening to close the gap