Haley and Martinez are not from key electoral states. Picking a running mate from a swing state is a regular tactic for presidential candidates, even if it often does not work. And the big problem with assuming Ernst, Kasich, Rubio, Scott or Walker could carry their home states in November is that they all won elections in 2010 and 2014, when voter turnout was lower and more conservative-leaning. None of them won when the so-called Obama coalition was out in full force, as is likely this November.