Another pitch that the team at Analytic Angels is evaluating came from an entrepreneur who is launching a new type of online social network. He claimed that the success of companies such as Facebook means his venture has a high probability of success. When questioned about his launch timeline he estimated a 90% probability of an on-time launch, which is critical to the overall success of the venture since other companies are working on similar evolutions in the way social networks function.
The technology and marketing groups for the venture each have their own timelines to complete for the network as a whole to launch on time. When questioned individually, the Vice Presidents responsible for each of those parts of business each also gave a 90% probability of their departments completing their own activities on time.
In no more than 1000 characters (including spaces), describe the decision challenge(s) Analytic Angels need to consider when evaluating those estimates, and suggest ways of overcoming the decision challenge(s) present.