Airline investors in the United States are leaving money on the table. We’ve now had more than a year of oil prices averaging $50-60 a barrel or lower, and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude just dropped beneath $35 a barrel. So it’s high time for airline investors to stop getting spooked at the mere whisper of capacity increases.
For too long, airline investors have punished airlines through their stock price for any increase in capacity, perceived or real, that took an airline outside of certain bounds. A very good example of this came in May 2015, when Southwest Airlines Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Tammy Romo hinted at plans to take capacity growth beyond the accepted 7% to a range between 7% and 8%. Combined with comments from American Airlines CEO Doug Parker about “aggressively” matching low-cost rivals, Romo’s comments led to a sudden and sharp dip in the share prices of both Southwest and other US airlines. A few days later, Southwest pulled back its comments and reiterated a 7% cap on capacity growth in 2015 and its share price rebounded accordingly.