มุมมองฝรั่งในภาคการเงินไทย (บทความภาษาอังกฤษ) vote ถูกใจ
http://absolutelybangkok.com/trust-integrity-how-thai-politics-punish-a-nation
Trust & Integrity: How Thai Politics Punish A Nation
Rumors, denials, accusations, shadow plays, a third hand in action and the blaming of others … there’s never a dull moment in Thai politics. The consequence being that investors have long lost confidence. Thailand’s financial markets are by no means attractive these days. Here’s why, from a financier’s perspective:
In economic transactions and stock markets, trust in the integrity of market players, brokers, and institutions is the key. The Thai exchanges should hear the wake-up call to provide what is needed to get more people to view stocks as a form of legitimate savings.
Trust explains a major part of differences in equity preferences of a culture. Higher trust, even more important then better investor education, is needed to reduce the high discount in valuation of Thai stocks. For smooth and successfully functioning financial markets, investors’ trust in other individuals, companies and brokers is of paramount importance. People will only invest in shares if they are sure they are not being defrauded:
Industry, Economic & the SET: Trust & Integrity Key to Higher Participation in the SET/MAI
By Paul A. Renaud*, ThaiStocks.com
Investing in stocks not only requires an assessment of the risk-return trade-off based on existing data and analysis. It also requires trust that the data are reliable and that the overall system is fair. This mostly means: cheaters are punished and their bad actions published. How does Thailand fare on these criteria?
It is hard to understand important differences between stock markets around the world like investor participation levels and different valuations. Until a few years ago, economists were unable to explain why some residents invest far more than others in home country stocks than others. Why for example do people in the U.S. and Sweden invest far more heavily in shares, than residents of all other countries?
The insightful book Economics 2.0 by Professor Norbert Harin and Olaf Storbeck (2009) provides us with the clear answers. The researchers demonstrate that trust plays a major part in explaining the differences in equity culture. Only 7.2% of Americans and a mere 6% of Swedes say they do not trust their countries’ major corporations at all.
In Germany and Italy the corresponding figures are over 17% and these discrepancies are even more pronounced for highly affluent people. In Sweden only 2% of the rich doubt the integrity of business while in Italy the figure is 29%. No wonder that in Sweden only 4% of the wealthy stay away from stocks while in Italy 35% do.
A Dutch central bank 2,000-person-survey found that those expressing the opinion that most of those around them can be trusted are 50% more likely to own shares and moreover will also invest a 3.4% larger portion of their wealth in shares. While this sounds like a small number, it’s huge relative to the country’s pool of total private savings.
While an increasing level of education will diminish the significance of the “trust effect,” this does not cancel out its overriding dominance. The lack of trust, either generalized or personalized, reduces the demand for equities.
And lower demand reduces the country’s P/E valuations. For a country’s capital markets, this is a huge price to pay.
No numbers are given for Thailand. But even a P/E re-rating of a few notches would increase the total market value by many billions of Baht. The authors of Economics 2.0 write: “In countries where the trust level is of lower levels, implies stocks will be more difficult to list and command lower valuations, which penalized the companies, the investors and the economy as a whole.”
I am reminded of a 2003 book, Credibility. How leaders gain and lose it, why people demand it by Kouzes and Posner. These authors cited survey after survey on what peoples more then anything want from leaders: honesty. Credibility and honesty are the core foundation. Kozes and Posner wrote: Honesty and crediblity are (by far) “the key attributes desired in leaders.” They outranked progress, inspiration and even competence. Credibility is mostly about consistency between words and deeds.
The single biggest reason why few Thais and foreigners invest in stocks here is due to their perceived concerns over integrity, honesty and credibility in corporate accounts and with regulators’ often aloof inaction over addressing accounting issues with more than mere words or idle warnings.
When this changes for the better, the average Thai stock will be valued upwards, toward their to regional average levels. Huge new wealth will be created.
มุมมองฝรั่งในภาคการเงินไทย (บทความภาษาอังกฤษ) vote ถูกใจ http://absolutelybangkok.com/trust-integrity-how-thai-politics-punish-a-nationTrust & Integrity: How Thai Politics Punish A NationRumors, denials, accusations, shadow plays, a third hand in action and the blaming of others … there’s never a dull moment in Thai politics. The consequence being that investors have long lost confidence. Thailand’s financial markets are by no means attractive these days. Here’s why, from a financier’s perspective:In economic transactions and stock markets, trust in the integrity of market players, brokers, and institutions is the key. The Thai exchanges should hear the wake-up call to provide what is needed to get more people to view stocks as a form of legitimate savings.Trust explains a major part of differences in equity preferences of a culture. Higher trust, even more important then better investor education, is needed to reduce the high discount in valuation of Thai stocks. For smooth and successfully functioning financial markets, investors’ trust in other individuals, companies and brokers is of paramount importance. People will only invest in shares if they are sure they are not being defrauded:Industry, Economic & the SET: Trust & Integrity Key to Higher Participation in the SET/MAIBy Paul A. Renaud*, ThaiStocks.comInvesting in stocks not only requires an assessment of the risk-return trade-off based on existing data and analysis. It also requires trust that the data are reliable and that the overall system is fair. This mostly means: cheaters are punished and their bad actions published. How does Thailand fare on these criteria?It is hard to understand important differences between stock markets around the world like investor participation levels and different valuations. Until a few years ago, economists were unable to explain why some residents invest far more than others in home country stocks than others. Why for example do people in the U.S. and Sweden invest far more heavily in shares, than residents of all other countries?The insightful book Economics 2.0 by Professor Norbert Harin and Olaf Storbeck (2009) provides us with the clear answers. The researchers demonstrate that trust plays a major part in explaining the differences in equity culture. Only 7.2% of Americans and a mere 6% of Swedes say they do not trust their countries’ major corporations at all.In Germany and Italy the corresponding figures are over 17% and these discrepancies are even more pronounced for highly affluent people. In Sweden only 2% of the rich doubt the integrity of business while in Italy the figure is 29%. No wonder that in Sweden only 4% of the wealthy stay away from stocks while in Italy 35% do.A Dutch central bank 2,000-person-survey found that those expressing the opinion that most of those around them can be trusted are 50% more likely to own shares and moreover will also invest a 3.4% larger portion of their wealth in shares. While this sounds like a small number, it’s huge relative to the country’s pool of total private savings.While an increasing level of education will diminish the significance of the “trust effect,” this does not cancel out its overriding dominance. The lack of trust, either generalized or personalized, reduces the demand for equities.And lower demand reduces the country’s P/E valuations. For a country’s capital markets, this is a huge price to pay.No numbers are given for Thailand. But even a P/E re-rating of a few notches would increase the total market value by many billions of Baht. The authors of Economics 2.0 write: “In countries where the trust level is of lower levels, implies stocks will be more difficult to list and command lower valuations, which penalized the companies, the investors and the economy as a whole.”I am reminded of a 2003 book, Credibility. How leaders gain and lose it, why people demand it by Kouzes and Posner. These authors cited survey after survey on what peoples more then anything want from leaders: honesty. Credibility and honesty are the core foundation. Kozes and Posner wrote: Honesty and crediblity are (by far) “the key attributes desired in leaders.” They outranked progress, inspiration and even competence. Credibility is mostly about consistency between words and deeds.The single biggest reason why few Thais and foreigners invest in stocks here is due to their perceived concerns over integrity, honesty and credibility in corporate accounts and with regulators’ often aloof inaction over addressing accounting issues with more than mere words or idle warnings.When this changes for the better, the average Thai stock will be valued upwards, toward their to regional average levels. Huge new wealth will be created.
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