In a nutshell, the effect of good governance or the
economy gets weaker as the other worsens. When both
decline the incumbent loses the most. Overall, the effect of
the economy is expected to be stronger than the one of the
quality of governance. This expectations are partially
grounded on the valence politics theory. Both good governance
and economic growth are valence issues (Stokes,
1963, 1992): everyone supports less corruption, better
governance and economic growth. According to the
scholarship on valence politics, incumbents are replaced
based on their competence and performance on these issues
only if the rival is better equipped to govern (Ho et al.,
2013; Clarke and Whitten, 2013). Poor improvements in
corruption and good governance can then remain unpunished
if voters do not have better options to choose from, or