We thank Wallice Ao, Roberto Duncan, Lowell Ricketts and Mian Zhu for exceptional research
assistance, and seminar audiences at the European Central Bank and the IMF for helpful comments. We
thank the National Science Foundation for financial support. Note to referees and editor: the Additional
Appendix that is referenced in the paper has been submitted as a two separate documents (Appendix A
and Appendix B) that are not intended for publication