covered-sovereign
When investors compare covered bonds to sovereign debt there are a number of factors that they take into
account. In a very simplifid approach, on the one end there is the higher liquidity of sovereign debt and lower
capital charge compared to covered bonds while on the other end, spread stability and potential recoveries
speak in favour of covered bonds. The liquidity and capital charge arguments pro sovereign debt are valid
across the curve. However, while spread stability as well as recoveries are no major topics at the very short
end, these topics become more and more relevant the longer a bond is. Consequently covered bond – sovereign bond spread curves should slope downwards over time. And the weaker the sovereign, the stronger the
cover pool and the less volatile a covered bond programme is the steeper should the curve slope downwards.