Conclusions
The overall simulated impact of climate change on wheat pro-ductivity in Central Asia is positive. A warmer climate explains mostof this positive impact; CO2fertilization adds to it. Too hot temper-atures during flowering (flower sterility) will become a problemin the long-term future in some, mostly southern, areas and inthe spring wheat areas of northern Kazakhstan. However, the pic-ture is not unduly dramatic, and targeted crop breeding towardstemperature tolerance in combination with improved agronomicmanagement (shifting planting dates) may be able to tackle theissue.