Good industry analysis looks rigorously at the structural underpinnings
of profitability. first step is to understand the appropriate time horizon.
One of the essential tasks in industry
analysis is to distinguish temporary or
cyclical changes from structural
changes. A good guideline for the appropriate time horizon is the full business
cycle for the particular industry. For
most industries, a three-to-five-year horizon is appropriate, although in some industries with long lead times, such as
mining, the appropriate horizon might
be a decade or more. It is average profit-
ability over this period, not profitability
in any particular year, that should be the
focus of analysis.
The point of industry analysis is not
to declare the industry attractive or unattractive but to understand the underpinnings of competition and the root
causes of profitability. As much as possible, analysts should look at industry
structure quantitatively, rather than be
satisfied with lists of qualitative factors.
Many elements of the five forces can be
quantified: the percentage of the buyer’s
total cost accounted for by the industry’s
product (to understand buyer price sensitivity); the percentage of industry sales
required to fill a plant or operate a logistical network of efficient scale (to help assess barriers to entry); the buyer’s switching cost (determining the inducement an
entrant or rival must offer customers).
The strength of the competitive
forces affects prices, costs, and the investment required to compete; thus
the forces are directly tied to the income statements and balance sheets of
industry participants. Industry structure defines the gap between revenues
and costs. For example, intense rivalry
drives down prices or elevates the costs of marketing, R&D, or customer service, reducing margins. How much? Strong suppliers drive up input costs. How much?
Buyer power lowers prices or elevates the
costs of meeting buyers’ demands, such
as the requirement to hold more inventory or provide financing. How much?
Low barriers to entry or close substitutes
limit the level of sustainable prices. How
much? It is these economic relationships
that sharpen the strategist’s understanding of industry competition.
Finally, good industry analysis does
not just list pluses and minuses but
sees an industry in overall, systemic
terms. Which forces are underpinning
(or constraining) today’s profitability?
How might shifts in one competitive
force trigger reactions in others? Answering such questions is often the source of
true strategic insights.