Some people are under the false impression that global warning is a theory that still has to be confirmed. They do not realize that scientists are in complete agreement that a continual rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases will inevitably lead to warning and global climate changes.The disagreements are about the timing and amplitude of the expected warming.
It is as if we are in a raft,gliding smoothly down a river, towards dangerous rapids and possibly a waterfall,and are uncertain of the distance to the waterfall.If we know what the distance is then we can tackle the very difficult political matter of deciding on the appropriate time to get out of the water. Suppose,however,that the scientific results have uncertainties,that the scientists can do no better than estimate that we will arrive at the waterfall in thirty minutes,plus or minus ten minutes.Pessimists will arrive in 20 minutes or less,while optimists will state confidently that we would not be there for 40 minutes or more. Such disagreements usually result in the postponement of the political decision until more accurate scientific result are available-- everyone knows that scientists should be capable of precise predictions--or until we are in sight of the waterfall.We recently had such an experience.It is in our interest to limit the growth in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.It is wise to avoid comprehensive programs that decree a rigid course of action to reach a grand,final solution.It is better to take action,and to correct mistakes at an early stage before scarce resources have been wasted.We are courting a disaster and need to accept that uncertainties do not justify inaction.
Some people are under the false impression that global warning is a theory that still has to be confirmed. They do not realize that scientists are in complete agreement that a continual rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases will inevitably lead to warning and global climate changes.The disagreements are about the timing and amplitude of the expected warming. It is as if we are in a raft,gliding smoothly down a river, towards dangerous rapids and possibly a waterfall,and are uncertain of the distance to the waterfall.If we know what the distance is then we can tackle the very difficult political matter of deciding on the appropriate time to get out of the water. Suppose,however,that the scientific results have uncertainties,that the scientists can do no better than estimate that we will arrive at the waterfall in thirty minutes,plus or minus ten minutes.Pessimists will arrive in 20 minutes or less,while optimists will state confidently that we would not be there for 40 minutes or more. Such disagreements usually result in the postponement of the political decision until more accurate scientific result are available-- everyone knows that scientists should be capable of precise predictions--or until we are in sight of the waterfall.We recently had such an experience.It is in our interest to limit the growth in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.It is wise to avoid comprehensive programs that decree a rigid course of action to reach a grand,final solution.It is better to take action,and to correct mistakes at an early stage before scarce resources have been wasted.We are courting a disaster and need to accept that uncertainties do not justify inaction.
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