he King's sister remains in the hospital, and a
political ally of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin told us she
is brain-dead, despite public announcements to the contrary.
The political party loyal to Thaksin revised its draft party
list in response to an alleged plan by unnamed figures to use
the eventual announcement of the King's sister's death in
order to postpone elections. The extreme anti-Thaksin forces
have tried to use every tool possible to delay the elections,
so the concerns of Thaksin's camp cannot be dismissed out of
hand. Ultimately, however, we are skeptical that the death
of the Princess alone would derail the elections. Our
contact assessed Army Commander Anupong Paojinda as unlikely
to instigate plots to delay elections, but he believed
Anupong had not yet been able to consolidate his control over
the military. We continue to believe the elections will take
place as scheduled, even if the Princess dies before then.
End Summary.
KING'S SISTER STILL HOSPITALIZED
--------------------------------
2. (U) The Royal Household Bureau announced on November 6
that the condition of the King's sister, Princess Galyani
Vadhana, who suffers from cancer and has been hospitalized,
has improved. The statement said she had recovered from a
fever and was more alert.
DEATH MAY BE MANIPULATED TO AFFECT ELECTION
-------------------------------------------
3. (C) In a meeting with us on November 7, political activist
Jakrapob Penkair said he had heard reports that Princess
Galyani was already brain-dead and dependent on a respirator.
(Note: Jakrapob is closely aligned with politicians loyal to
deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. People's Power
Party (PPP) Deputy Leader Yongyuth Tiyapairath, who maintains
close ties to Thaksin, referred Jakrapob to us as a reliable
spokesman for PPP. End Note.) Jakrapob said top officials
in PPP had heard these reports from sources they considered
reliable; they further believed that news of Galyani's death
would be suppressed until after December 5, the King's 80th
birthday. On or about December 10, according to Jakrapob's
sources, the news of Galyani's death would be released, and a
period of mourning would begin.
4. (C) Jakrapob said he and other top officials of PPP had
heard that influential anti-Thaksin figures would use
Galyani's death as a pretext to delay the December 23
election for a period of one year. It would be virtually
impossible for anyone to publicly protest a postponement
portrayed as a show of respect for the monarchy. Jakrapob
said that, if this were to take place, PPP planned not to
protest the delay, but, after a period of weeks, people from
PPP circles would begin raising publicly the need for a
return to elected government. Jakrapob said that PPP
considered the scenario of an election delay based on
Galyani's death sufficiently credible that party officials
held an all-night meeting on the night of November 6 to
revise the party list for the coming election, and to ensure
that certain figures who might be needed for unofficial
agitation would maintain a certain distance from the party.
PPP continued to plan for the election on the assumption that
it would take place, however.
5. (C) Jakrapob noted that pressure from certain circles to
delay the election had made strange bedfellows of PPP and
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, who shared PPP's desire for
elections as soon as possible. Citing efforts by the King to
ensure the prompt issuance of the Royal Decree that had set
BANGKOK 00005717 002.2 OF 002
the December 23 election date, Jakrapob felt that the King
would favor maintaining the current election schedule, even
in Qe event of Galyani's death. Jakrapob assessed that the
King would not want Thais who want a fast return to democracy
to feel as though they had to choose between elections and
mourning Galyani's death. Jakrapob believed that Queen
Sirikit, however, was more concerned than the King about the
possibility that elections would restore political power to
those allied with Thaksin. Jakrapob noted that, even if the
elections were not delayed, Galyani's death might prompt
other measures that could affect PPP -- for example, the
Election Commission might announce more restrictive
regulations pertaining to party activities during a period of
mourning.
VIEW OF ARMY COMMANDER
----------------------
6. (C) Jakrapob expressed concern that the military would use
a postponement of elections to continue its domination of
Thai politics. We asked Jakrapob's assessment of Army
commander Anupong Paojinda, remarking that people in PPP/Thai
Rak Thai circles typically told us they viewed Anupong
positively, despite his involvement in the 2006 coup d'etat.
Jakrapob said that, prior to the coup, he had been present
when then-PM Thaksin