Increased rainfall relieve drought-affected areas
Plantings of the main (wet) season paddy crop, which represents about 80 percent of the national annual production, normally starts in May with the onset of the rainy season and continues into August. Prolonged dry weather reportedly resulted in sowing delays, although improved rainfall since mid‑May over the main rice‑producing areas located in the southeastern and central parts, provided some relief. By contrast, Battambang and Banteay Mean Chey, important rice‑growing provinces in the northwest, continued to experience poor rains that are expected to further delay planting operations. At this early stage, the outlook for the 2016 rice crop remains uncertain, as much will depend on the performance of the monsoon rains from July onwards, a critical period for paddy development.
Planting of the 2016 maize crop is underway and the improved rains since mid‑May are also expected to benefit sowing operations and early crop development.
Although the 2015/16 El Niño episode has dissipated, atmospheric conditions now point to a likely occurrence of a La Niña episode towards the end of 2016 (75 percent likelihood during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter), which would correspond with the planting period of the secondary season crop. Forecasts, however, also indicate a 64 percent chance that La Niña may occur earlier in the July‑September 2016 period. If an early onset transpires, which is historically associated with heavier rainfall, this could benefit late planting and crop development of the main cereal season crops, although excessive rains could also raise the potential for flooding.