SINCE the coup d’état in May economists have been trying to figure what South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy will do next. The data show that this year there will be hardly any growth at all. Spending is weak, investment down, trade and tourism shrinking. A drought is looming in the provinces and in Bangkok easy money has pushed the bourse nearly to an all-time-high. The optimists note that the coup has restored peace and order and things are already looking up. The pessimists see nothing but problems: a collapse in domestic demand, martial law, crippling uncertainty about the army’s ability to run the economy, among other things and an imminent royal succession.