A structural break in 2004 can be explained by the fact that prices of several important
commodities, including rice, cement, urea fertilizer, and steel for construction, were
liberalized to a great extent during 2002-2004.2 Moreover, this period also witnessed growing
use of open market operations as well as liberalization of interest rates on dong deposits, and
on dong and foreign currency lending. The structural break in 2007Q4 is probably linked to
Vietnam joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) earlier in the year and implementing
measures to fulfill its membership commitments. Moreover, the banking sector went through
a period of fairly rapid restructuring in 2007 as it prepared for increased competition, with
foreign banks gaining better access to the domestic financial market under Vietnam’s WTO
commitments. More importantly, the surge in capital inflows that followed WTO
membership compelled the authorities to allow the exchange rate to be more flexible and to
serve as a shock absorber; as a result, since 2008 exchange rate devaluations have been more
frequent and of larger magnitudes (Nguyen and Nguyen (2010)).