3. Results
The environmental scanning exercise yielded overall component
changes that reflect the future of each biofuel feedstock in a quantitative
and systematicway.While these numbers may not represent any direct indicators of each component, they can be used in many ways to elucidate
the relationships between components. Energy science is inherently
complex and relies uponmany factors.While themodel cannot possibly
take into account every potential influence, it gains insight into the major
areas of interest in the future role of biofuels in the United States. Climate
change and peak oil has driven the energy portfolio of the United States
by encouraging the growth of renewable and low-emission sources like
biofuels. Cellulosic and algal feedstocks are prominent pathways to
mitigate emissions causing climate change while maintaining energy
supplies.
Many of the components included in the biofuel model are related
to the sustainability of the selected biofuel source. They connect how
ecology, culture, economics, and politics unite to provide viable energy
for the future. Results of the analysis are shown in Figs. 5–7 and Table 6.
There are two important values in these results. Lower and upper
expected changes define trends in components over time. The total
change per component measures the difference between the twenty
year expected impact value and the five year expected impact value.
This value demonstrates the future trends of components. The distance
between the lower and upper expected values indicates the level of
confidence in the impact values. A higher distance between two components
shows lower levels of certainty.