In addition to continued monitoring, further research and
model development is needed is needed in order to understand
cause and effect relationships and build reliable
predictive capabilities. In particular, the fate and effects of
dissolved organic nitrogen inputs from the Everglades and the
effects of changing salinity on internal nutrient cycling
(especially in sediments) needs to be assessed. Quantitative
evaluations of multiple factors that will change with restoration
and that may influence bloom dynamics also need to be
made via model analysis (particularly with a water quality
model). Such evaluations include not only the effects of
changing nutrient inputs, but also the effects of changing
salinity, water residence time, seagrass community cover and
productivity, sediment stability, and growth of grazers.
The ability to predict phytoplankton bloom response to
CERP is dependent upon the further refinement of the
Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code Model that has been
developed as a task of CERP’s FBFKFS. Thismodel is designed
to predict the intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of
phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay and the nearshore SW
Florida Shelf as CERP is implemented. A similar model is
required for Biscayne Bay. However, further model development
and refinement is needed to accurately predict CHLA
in the southern estuaries. Given such refinement the model
could be calibrated against the pre-CERP environment, the
baseline condition discussed herein. With such a quantitative
tool, we will be able to directly evaluate how CERP
projects have altered phytoplankton bloom behavior in this
region.