I investigate whether news sentiment and trader positions are
influenced by the macroeconomic variables suggested by
Bessembinder and Chan (1992) as factors in futures pricing.
The identified factors include changes in interest rates as determined
by 3-month treasury bills, changes in the credit spread, and
changes in the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The results reported
in Table 6 suggest that news sentiment is significantly more negative
when the credit spread is increasing, and when the dividend
yield is increasing. A tightening credit market and rising dividend
yield (commonly a result of falling stock markets) are generally
consistent with a recessionary environment
A tightening credit market and rising dividend
yield
rising