Table 2 shows the total primary energy supply (TPES)
mix in 2000 and selected future years under four scenarios.
Thailand is a fossil fuel intensive economy. In the year
2000, the share of fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil and natural gas)
in TPES accounted for about 81% (62 Mtoe) and the
remaining share of 19% (15 Mtoe) came from NRE
sources. Also in the same year, oil accounted for more
than 56% of the total fossil fuels used while biomass (i.e.,
firewood, charcoal, agricultural residues, plantation-based
biomass and biofuels) accounted for more than 93% of the
total NRE sources.
As seen from Table 2, the TPES between years 2000 and
2050 is estimated to grow from more than three-folds under
TB2 to about eight-folds under TA1. Fossil fuels would
continue to dominate the country’s primary energy supply
mix accounting for more than 86% of the TPES under all
scenarios in 2050. Oil would remain a single largest fuel in
the primary energy supply mix over the study period except
under TA1 scenario in 2050. Among the fossil fuels use
over the study period, coal would essentially be restricted
to all industrial applications except fabricated metals and
electricity generation, while oil would essentially be
restricted to manufacturing and transportation. In the case
of natural gas use, electricity generation would account for
the most followed by industries (food beverages, chemicals,
cement and fabricated metals production) and road
transportation. In contrast, the share of NRE sources in
TPES would fall from 19% in 2000 to the lowest at 6%
under TA1 to about 14% under TB2 in 2050. The fall in
the share of NRE sources over the study period is due to
the limited domestic resource availability of biomass and
limited potential of hydro, solar, wind and geothermal in
the country. Renewables (i.e., biomass and hydro) would
account for more than 99% of total NRE sources over the
study period. New renewables (i.e., solar, wind and
geothermal), however, would account for only a negligible
part in TPES over the study period. By 2050, use of
biofuels (i.e., ethanol and biodiesel) in transportation
sector would reach about 12.7% of the total biomass
requirements which corresponds to about 1% of the TPES
under the reference scenario.
Thailand is a net energy import country in the past. The
EID was about 50% in 2000 and it is estimated to reach
ranging from 80% under TB2 to 89% under TA1 in 2050
(Fig. 3). The increase in EID over the study period is
mainly due to growing energy demand and the limited
domestic energy resources availability in the country. In
2000 alone, almost all oil consumption, more than 33% of
total coal consumption and 10% of total natural gas
consumption were imported in Thailand. Under the high
growth TA1 scenario, coal and natural gas imports by 2050
are estimated to reach up to 90% and 95% of total coal