CONCLUSION
We have demonstrated that users’ perceptions of their audience size in social media do not match reality. By combining
survey and log analysis, we quantified the difference between
users’ estimated audience and their actual reach. Users underestimate their audience on specific posts by a factor of
four, and their audience in general by a factor of three. Half
of users want to reach larger audiences, but they are already
reaching much larger audiences than they think. Log analysis of updates from 220,000 Facebook users suggests that
feedback, friend count, and past audience size are all highly
variable predictors of audience size, so it would be difficult
for a user to predict their audience size reliably. Put simply,
users do not receive enough feedback to be aware of their
audience size. However, Facebook users do manage to reach
35% of their friends with each post and 61% of their friends
over the course of a month.
CONCLUSIONWe have demonstrated that users’ perceptions of their audience size in social media do not match reality. By combiningsurvey and log analysis, we quantified the difference betweenusers’ estimated audience and their actual reach. Users underestimate their audience on specific posts by a factor offour, and their audience in general by a factor of three. Halfof users want to reach larger audiences, but they are alreadyreaching much larger audiences than they think. Log analysis of updates from 220,000 Facebook users suggests thatfeedback, friend count, and past audience size are all highlyvariable predictors of audience size, so it would be difficultfor a user to predict their audience size reliably. Put simply,users do not receive enough feedback to be aware of theiraudience size. However, Facebook users do manage to reach35% of their friends with each post and 61% of their friendsover the course of a month.
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